First Home Guarantee Scheme Is a Win for Buyers – But for How Long? 

The recent expansion of the First Home Guarantee scheme by the Labor Government – including earlier delivery, increased property value caps, and the removal of income thresholds – has been welcomed by many. It’s a significant step aimed at helping first-home buyers get into the market sooner. 

But as promising as it sounds, the real question is: how long will this opportunity last? 

The Upside: A Pathway into the Market

Under the revised scheme, first-home buyers can now purchase with just a 5% deposit, and no Lenders Mortgage Insurance – thanks to the government guaranteeing up to 15% of the loan. In markets like Brisbane, the price cap has increased from $750,000 to $1 million, making the scheme accessible to more buyers in higher-value locations. 

In theory, this sounds like a game-changer. But in practice, it may only be a short-term window of opportunity – and for some, an expensive one. 

What’s Really Driving the Market Right Now? 

Let’s look at the wider context. 

• Interest rates are expected to be cut again this year. 

• Buyer confidence is increasing. 

• Auction clearance rates are rising. 

• Supply remains critically low. 

And now, we’re entering the Spring buying season – traditionally one of the busiest times of year in the Australian real estate market. Add the influx of first-home buyers into the mix, and you have a perfect storm of high demand and limited supply. 

The outcome? A sharp increase in market competitiveness and, ultimately, rising property prices, which no Buyer wants. 

The Catch: Is This Really a Long-Term Solution? 

While this scheme may help some buyers in the short term, it’s unlikely to provide a sustainable path to affordability. 

Even with higher property caps, it’s questionable how many first-home buyers can realistically service a mortgage of $950,000. As prices surge in response to this policy and broader market forces, the very group this scheme is designed to help may once again find themselves priced out. 

A Political Solution, not a Structural One 

There’s no doubt that this announcement is a step in the right direction. But to me it feels more like a political gesture – one that makes headlines and delivers short-term optics – rather than a structural solution to the deeper issue of housing affordability. 

Without meaningful increases in housing supply and support systems that go beyond just financing access, this scheme could unintentionally fuel the affordability crisis even further. 

Final Thoughts 

If you’re a first-home buyer eligible under the new rules, this could be your moment – but you’ll need to move quickly, and you’ll need a clear strategy. 

As always, don’t let emotion lead the way. Work with the numbers, understand your capacity, and plan with long-term stability in mind. 

Trent Cripps 
Director of Property Management, Legacy Property Australia 

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Trent is our Director of Property Strategy and has been with Legacy Property Australia since the beginning. Skilled in market analysis and investment strategies with a keen eye for emerging trends, Trent excels in identifying outstanding opportunities that help our clients achieve their financial goals.